Trend and Forecasting Analysis on Climate Variability: A Case of Nepal
Keywords:
Climate variability, Environment, Altitude, Temperature, Rainfall, NepalAbstract
Climate variability in Nepal has become a big environmental issue. This paper investigates empirically and analytically whether climate variability exists or not in different altitude, whether its direction moves and what will be its future direction. We use time series model based on the secondary data of hydrology and metrology collected from Department of Hydrology and Metrology, the Government of Nepal. The time series analysis finds climate variability in the different parts of Nepal in which all months have variability of temperature and rainfall precipitation. From 1975 to 2010, temperature raises annually by 20 C. However, rainfall is declining. It is forecasted change of temperature by 60c over next 40 years. In case of rainfall, it is forecasted constant and results drought in high altitude and flood in low altitude. Climate variability may be a big threat in the different parts of Nepal.
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2. Agrawal PK, Kalra N. Analysing the limitation set by climate factors, genotype, and Water and nitrogen availability on productivity of wheat II. Climatically potential yield and optimal Management strategies. Field crop research. 1994; 38(2): 93-103.
3. Bartlett R, Bharati L, Pant D et al. Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation in Nepal. IWMI Working. 2010; pp.139.
4. Basnet K. Temperature variation in Nepal. The Himalayan Review, Nepal Geographical society. 19891992; 20(23): 35-34.
5. Bhandari G. Effect of Precipitation and Temperature variation on the yield of major cereals in Dedeldhura Districts of Far Western Development Region, Nepal. International Journal of Plant, Animal and Environmental Sciences 2013; 3(1): 205-213.
6. Briguglio L. The vulnerability Index and Small Island Developing States: A Review of Conceptual and Methodological. Issues Draft Version 03. 2003.
7. Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS). Third Living Standard Survey 2010/11, Report, Central Bureau of Statistics, Kathmandu. 2011.
8. Cline William R. Global Warming and Agriculture: Impact Estimates by Country. Peterson Institute for International Economics and Center for Global Development, Washington. 2007.
9. Daniel A. Ackerberg, Kevin Caves and Garth Frazer. Structural identi.cation of pro-duction functions. Preliminary. 2005.
10. Dell M, BF Jones, BA Olken. Temperature Shocks and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Half Century. MIT, North Southern University and NEBER. 2012; 4(3): 65-95.
11. Kurukulasuriya P, Rosenthal S. Climate change and agriculture: A review of impacts and adaptations. Climate Change Series. World Bank, Washington, D.C. 2003; pp. 91
12. Government of Nepal (GON). Climate Change Policy. Kathmandu: Government of Nepal. 2011.
13. Hanson JG, Baker BB, Bourdon RM. Comparison of the effects of different climate change scenarios on rangeland livestock production. Agricultural Systems 1993; 41: 487-502.
14. Uzma H, Syed SH, Ahmad R et al. Economic Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Sector of Punjab. 2010. Source: http://www.pide.org.pk/psde/25/pdf/agm26/ day3/Uzma%20Hanif.pdf. 2012.
15. Hassan R. Implications of Climate Change for Agricultural Sector performance in Africa: Policy Challenges and Research Agenda. Journal of African Economics 2008; 19(2): 77-105.
16. IPCC. Technical Summary. In Climate Change Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. 2001.
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20. Joshi NP, Maharjan K, Piya L. Effect of Climate Variations on Yield of Major Food Crops in Nepal: A Time Series analysis. 2011; 1: 19-26.
21. Kim KH. Evaluation of Climate Vulnerability Index (CVI) in South Korea submitted in Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College, London, Thesis. 2010.
22. Kurukulasuriya P, Ajwad M. Estimating the impact of climate change on smallholders: A case study on the agricultural sector in Sri Lanka. In Mendelsohn R et al. (Eds.), Cross-Sectional Analyses of Climate Change Impacts. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 3350, World Bank, Washington DC. 2004.
23. Kurukulasuriya P, Mendelsohn R. Crop switching as a strategy for adapting to climate change. African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 2008; 2(1).
24. Kurukulasuriya P, Mendelsohn R. Endogenous Irrigation: The Impact of Climate Change on Farmers in Africa. Policy Research Working Paper 4278, World Bank. 2007.
25. Malla G. Climate Change and Impact on Nepalese Agricultur. Journal of Agriculture and Environment 2008; 9. 26. Mendelsohn R, Nordhaus WD, Shaw D. The impact of global warming on agriculture: a Ricardian analysis. The American Economic Review 1994; 753-771.
27. Mirza Nomman, Ahmed, PM Schmitz. Using the Ricardian Technique to estimate the impact of Climate change on Crop Farming in Pakistan Paper prepared for presentation at the EAAE 2011 Congress, Switzerland. 2011.
28. Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives (MOAC). Statistical information in Nepalese agriculture, Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives, Kathmandu. 2011.
29. Nayava JL. Rainfall in Nepal. The Himalayan Review, Nepal Geographical society. 1980; 12: 20-23.
30. Nayava JL, Singh R, Bhatta MR. Impact of Climate, Climate Change and Modern Technology on Wheat Production in Nepal: A case study at Bhirahwa. Journal of Hydrology and Meteorology 2009; 6(1): 1-15.
31. Panta KP. Effects of Agriculture on Climate Change: A Cross Country Study of Factors Affecting Carbon Emissions. The Journal of Agriculture and Environment 2009; 10.
32. Practical Action. Promoting Adaptation to Climate Change in Nepal: A Briefing for Government Advisors and Development Practitioners. Practical Action, Nepal. 2007.
33. Shrestha SL, Maharjan KL, Joshi NP. Relationship between Climate Variables and Yields of Food crops in Nepal: Cases of Makwanpur and Ilam Districts. Journal of International Development and Cooperation 2012; 18(4): 37-54.
34. Seo SN, Mendelsohn R. Climate change and impacts on animal husbandry in Africa: a Ricardian analysis. CEEPA Discussion. 2006a; pp. 9.
35. Seo SN, Mendelsohn R. Climate change impacts on animal husbandry in Africa: a Ricardian analysis. CEEPA Discussion, special series on climate change and agriculture and Climate change in AfricaSterns, N (2006). The Economics of Climate change. London: H.M Treasury. 2006b. pp. 9.
36. Sullivan C, Meigh J. Targeting attention on local vulnerabilities using an integrated index approach: the example of the Climate Vulnerability Index. Water Science and Technology 2005; 51(5):69-78.
37. Sullivan CA, Huntingford C. Water resources, Climate Change and Human Vulnerability in Anderssen, RS, RD Braddock and LTH Newham (Eds) International Congress on Modelling and Simulation. Modeling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand and International Association for Mathematics and Computers in Simulation. 2009; 2377-2383. ISBN: 978-0-9758400-7-8.
38. UNFCCC. Reducing Emissions from Deforestation in Developing Countries: Approaches to Stimulate Actions. 2007. Decision-/CP.13. Available at: http://unfccc.int/ files/meetings/cop_13/application/pdf/cp_redd.pdf (Accessed on 1 July 2008).
39. United Nations Framework Conventions on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Climate Change: Impacts, Vulnerabilities and Adaptation in Developing Countries. UNFCCC Secretariat. Bonn Germany. 2007.
40. Wu SY, Yarnal B, Fisher A. Vulnerability of coastal communities to sea level rise: a case study of Cape May County. New Jersey, USA. Climate Research 2002; 22: 225-270. www.dicitionary.com.
41. Zhai F, Lin T, Enerelt B. A General Equilibrium Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture in the People’s Republic of China. Asian Development Review, Asian Development Bank. 2009; 26(1): 206-225.
Published
2019-05-14
Issue
Section
Research Article
